Today concludes Franklin Laviola’s Academy Award predictions. Read what he thinks, give us your predictions, and win fabulous prizes!
Original Screenplay:
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
Will Win
Only the tedious and hideously overrated Inception could possibly upset veteran screenwriter David Seidler’s win for The King’s Speech. Not in a million years.
Should Win
As much as I like The King’s Speech and The Fighter neither one of their scripts holds a candle to Mike Leigh’s Another Year, an ensemble drama that recalls Chekhov, not just in its melancholy tone, but in its sharp attention to human behavior. This is Leigh’s fifth nomination in this category. It would be nice if his unique, humanistic voice was finally awarded some day.
Should Have Been Nominated
French writer-director Mia Hansen-Love, in just her second feature film, paints an indelible portrait of the casual build-up and tragic aftermath of a film producer’s suicide in The Father of My Children. In his directorial debut, Italian screenwriter Gianni Di Gregorio crafts a hilarious light comedy out of the most minimal of story elements in Mid-August Lunch.
Adapted Screenplay:
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Will Win
This is perhaps the easiest category on the whole ballot to predict. There is no doubt that West Wing creator Aaron Sorkin will walk away with Oscar gold on Sunday night. All voters needed was the opening rapid-fire dialogue between Jesse Eisenberg and Rooney Mara in the Cambridge bar, and they were instantly sold. Nobody will upset here.
Should Win
Sorkin’s steroidally-glib screenplay for The Social Network begins with a young woman telling its protagonist that he’s an asshole and ends with a different, more mature young woman telling him that he’s not an asshole, but only thinks he’s an asshole. True to his television pedigree, Sorkin makes the mistake of telling the audience exactly how to perceive his protagonist in the very last scene of the script. As smooth as the sailing might be, it’s because of this disingenuousness that I simply cannot get behind his film. So what should win here? The remaining screenplays all have problems. Toy Story 3 pales in comparison to its two predecessors and its inclusion in the “Adapted” category is dubious at best. Usually the best screenwriters in Hollywood, the Coen Brothers’ adaptation of the True Grit novel is structurally clunky at times and inexplicably excises an extended, drunken monologue from Rooster Cogburn that is genuinely jaw-dropping on the page. In 127 Hours, Danny Boyle and his co-writer Simon Beaufoy do a great job at maintaining tension, despite the extreme limitations of their story, but they prove to be a little too faithful to their real-life subject and allow an odd mawkishness to creep in during the last moments. So, with some reservations, I’d pick Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini’s adaptation of Daniel Woodrell’s novel Winter’s Bone. The story might lack a fully-formed third act, but, combining a film noir plot with a social realist instinct, the screenwriters depict a clannish subculture in the crystal meth-ravaged Ozarks of today with memorable results.
Should Have Been Nominated
Adapting Robert Harris’ bestseller The Ghost Writer, Roman Polanski and Harris himself have structured a frequently funny, always suspenseful political thriller about pervasive corruption on a geopolitical and personal scale. Sylvain Chomet’s charming and touching The Illusionist is based on a screenplay by Jacques Tati, originally written in 1956. A nomination here would have been a perfect posthumous tribute to the Oscar-nominated French master who ranks alongside Chaplin and Keaton, as one of the film medium’s true comic greats.
Animated Feature:
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Will Win
Pixar wins again! A victory so pre-ordained that I wouldn’t be surprised to see the animated Toy Story 3 characters approach the podium with the filmmakers to accept the award, as part of some Oscar telecast stunt.
Should Win
Not only true to the spirit of Tati’s near-silent style, Chomet’s elegy, The Illusionist, is old-fashioned, hand-drawn animation at its very best. It’s also more emotionally-resonant than most live action films from this past year.
Should Have Been Nominated
If you want to see some striking owl faces, rendered in state-of the art 3D animation, then Zach Snyder’s Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga-Hoole is definitely for you. On the low tech end of the spectrum, Paul Fierlinger’s My Dog Tulip is about the friendship between an older man and his German Shepherd. The latter film features a great cast of voices, including Christopher Plummer, Isabella Rossellini, and the late Lynn Redgrave.
Documentary Feature:
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
Will Win
Charles Ferguson’s Wall Street exposé Inside Job was the early frontrunner for the award this fall, but Banksy’s art house hit Exit Through the Gift Shop has gained substantial ground in the last few weeks alone. I suspect that voters’ primary motivation in selecting the latter over the former has more to do with their curiosity about whether the notorious, identity-concealed street artist will actually show up to the awards ceremony and show his face at the podium, rather than the quality of the film itself. Prediction: Banksy wins, but he doesn’t accept his award in public.
Should Win
Embedded journalists and filmmakers Sebastian Junger and Tim Hetherington risked life and limb to make Restrepo, which documents a year in the life of an Airborne regiment, stationed in the dangerous Korengal Valley in Afghanistan. Not your typical talking-heads documentary, Restrepo is technically well-crafted, surprisingly non-preachy, and, most of all, disturbing in its lasting power.
Should Have Been Nominated
Emmanuel Laurent’s Two in the Wave is about the early days of the French New Wave and the increasingly tense friendship between its leading filmmakers Francois Truffaut and Jean-Luc Godard. It runs just 90 minutes long, but the abundance of clips from both auteurs’ films, makes the viewer wish it was three times as long. From the makers of Winged Migration, Oceans is a gorgeously photographed, epic documentary that invites the viewer to submerge himself in the breathtaking spectacle of the threatened natural world.
Documentary Short Subject:
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang
Will Win
For its portrait of ecological devastation in China, The Warriors of Qiugang will win the Oscar.
Animated Short Film:
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let’s Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, A Journey Diary
Will Win
My guess here would be The Gruffalo.
Live Action Short Film:
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143
Will Win
The crowd-pleasing God of Love will win the Oscar.
Foreign Language Film:
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In A Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Outside the Law (Algeria)
Will Win
Since voters in this category actually have to prove they’ve seen all five nominees, the most high profile and well-publicized film of the bunch doesn’t automatically win. That would mean Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Biutiful does not exactly have any advantage. Last year distributor Sony Pictures Classics had three films in the race — The White Ribbon, A Prophet, and The Secret in Their Eyes. The latter and the most accessible and middle-brow of the three walked away with the award. This year, they have two films, Susanne Bier’s In A Better World from Denmark and Denis Villeneuve’s Incendies from Canada, which are both closer in spirit to last year’s eventual winner than the two Cannes-anointed, auteurist frontrunners going into Oscar night. Although Bier won the Golden Globe for her African refugee camp drama, I predict that Villeneuve’s mystery about twins, seeking to uncover their family’s true history in the Middle East, will hit all the right notes for Academy voters.
Should Win
I have only seen two of the five nominees — Biutiful from Mexico and Dogtooth from Greece. Neither one of them moved or impressed me very much.
Should Have Been Nominated
It seems like the selection committee for this branch of the Academy fails to shortlist a deserving film every year. In 2008, it was Gomorrah from Italy, and this year it’s both Cannes award-winners Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives from Thailand and Of Gods and Men from France. Couple this problem with the fact that a film’s country of origin must officially submit it, and you have a masterpiece like Vincere ignored in favor of a bloated epic like Baaria by the Italian government, in 2009. This past year, I Am Love from Italy and The Strange Case of Angelica from Portugal are two high profile films that weren’t even selected by their native countries to compete for the Academy Award.
Film Editing:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Will Win
Although the winner of this category more often than not matches up with the winner of Best Picture, I have a feeling The Social Network’s team of Kirk Baxter and AngusWall will be recognized for juggling chronology and cutting the seamless first act “Face Smash” montage, over Tariq Anwar’s more reserved work on The King’s Speech.
Should Win
Andrew Weisblum skillfully hid dance doubles and built tension from scene to scene in Black Swan, but Pamela Martin’s attention to performance and the choreography of the fight sequences in her cutting of The Fighter is equally impressive.
Should Have Been Nominated
The Ghost Writer for its classical, technical precision and Vincere for its propulsive, libidinous rhythm.
Cinematography:
Black Swan, Matthew Libatique
Inception, Wally Pfister
The King’s Speech, Danny Cohen
The Social Network, Jeff Cronenweth
True Grit, Roger Deakins
Will Win
This is Wallfy Pfister’s fourth consecutive nomination for his work with Christopher Nolan, and, although he won the ASC guild award two weeks ago, I still think this is Roger Deakins’ Oscar to lose. Deakins has been nominated eight times before and has never won. Expect a standing ovation.
Should Win
Having photographed films ranging from The Shawshank Redemption to No Country for Old Men, Roger Deakins is certainly one of the best cinematographers in the business, but I was immensely disappointed by his work on True Grit. Perhaps because of the tight shooting schedule and weather problems encountered on location, Deakins was forced to rely heavily on digital intermediate technology to create the overall look of the film in post-production and it shows in the finished product. For me, this category comes down to Danny Cohen for The King’s Speech and Matthew Libatique for Black Swan. Using a predominantly handheld Super 16mm camera, Libatique photographed a nearly monochromatic New York City, in sync with its protagonist’s nightmarish projections, as well as executing a number of sustained tracking shots, during the scenes of ballet. There’s a scene early on in The King’s Speech, in which Helena Bonham Carter is chauffeured through an enveloping London fog. Along with several steadicam shots following Colin Firth’s king through the royal corridors, this particular image is one of the highlights of Danny Cohen’s work.
Should Have Been Nominated
Australian great Russell Boyd won an Oscar for his previous collaboration with Peter Weir on Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World. His work on The Way Back also has epic scope and a keen eye for landscapes. In I Am Love, French cinematographer Yorick Le Saux balances the chiaroscuro lighting of wintry Milan locations with the sun-drenched hills of San Remo. It’s important to note that Le Saux chose not to utilize the digital intermediate in post-production and instead color corrected his work the old-fashioned way … photo-chemically.
Art Direction:
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit
Will Win
Guy Hendrix Dyas specializes in designing sets for massive effects-driven films and his work on Inception could win here, but I have a feeling the individual set voters remember most vividly is Geoffrey Rush’s office in The King’s Speech. A veteran of several Mike Leigh films, Eve Stewart will win for her small scale production design.
Should Win
Eve Stewart had a fraction of the budget that the designers on Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Inception, and True Grit had, yet her work, especially in her choice of key individual props, is by far the most evocative and detailed.
Should Have Been Nominated
Francesca Balestra di Mottola made every wall and floor of a Milanese villa jump off the screen in I Am Love, while Udo Kramer convincingly designed a mountainside on a soundstage to dangle actors from in the true adventure North Face.
Costume Design:
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Will Win
One of the best in the business, nine-time nominee Jenny Beavan will win her second Oscar for her period wardrobe work on The King’s Speech.
Should Win
A veteran of many Merchant Ivory films, Jenny Beavan does characteristically fine work on The King’s Speech, but Antonella Cannarozzi’s costumes for I Am Love really stand out and help to establish not just the film’s grand color scheme, but the mood of nearly every scene.
Should Have Been Nominated
Rose-Marie Melka’s costumes in Catherine Breillat’s Blue Beard are deliberately artificial, but their simplicity contributes to the creepy fairy tale world of the film. Sergio Ballo’s work on Vincere conjures the styles of both pre-Fascist and Fascist era Italy, while also accentuating the emotional state of its tragic heroine.
Sound Mixing:
Inception
The King’s Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit
Will Win
The biggest, loudest film usually wins here and that would be Inception.
Should Win
Remember that scene in The Social Network, where Jesse Eisenberg meets Justin Timberlake in a nightclub and the house music is so loud, you could barely hear what either one of them is saying? That’s a sound mixing decision on display.
Should Have Been Nominated
The sound mix on Black Swan was multi-layered, incorporating wall-to-wall samplings of Tchaikovsky and a series of eerie sound effects to heighten the subjective experience to great effect. Over the course of the main characters’ epic journey in The Way Back, the sound mixers represent each new location with stunning aural detail.
Sound Editing:
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
Will Win
One of the premiere supervising sound editors in the business, Richard King has won Oscars for Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World and The Dark Knight. He will win his third for Inception.
Should Win
With its wall-to-wall and varying degrees of engine roars and track screeches, Tony Scott’s runaway train action thriller Unstoppable, is an exercise in great, sustained sound editing.
Should Have Been Nominated
127 Hours for the arm amputation scene alone. North Face for making each gust of wind and every snap of rope, truly frightening.
Makeup:
Barney’s Version
The Way Back
The Wolf Man
Will Win
I’m guessing The Wolf Man was not well-liked in Hollywood, so legendary makeup designer Rick Baker is not likely to pick up his seventh (!) Oscar on Sunday. The team for The Way Back will win instead.
Should Win
As effective as Rick Baker’s makeup was on The Wolf Man, the designers on The Way Back faced the challenge of having to weather and physically degenerate up to six characters at a time in nearly every shot, over the course of the entire film.
Should Have Been Nominated
Valhalla Rising for Mads Mikkelsen’s one-eyed look. Black Swan for the occasional creepy, non-CGI alterations to Natalie Portman and Winona Ryder’s bodies.
Visual Effects:
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
Will Win
Inception wins this award with zero contest.
Should Win
The FX in Inception didn’t exactly dazzle me, but they were the most consistently well-executed of the list. I did enjoy the tsunami sequence in Hereafter, even if it was obviously CGI.
Should Have Been Nominated
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World for its comical use of state-of-the-art visual effects. The Strange Case of Angelica for using silent film era photographic techniques to tell its ghost story.
Original Score:
127 Hours, A.R. Rahman
How to Train Your Dragon, John Powell
Inception, Hans Zimmer
The King’s Speech, Alexandre Desplat
The Social Network, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
Will Win
French composer Alexandre Desplat will win his first Oscar on his fourth try for The King’s Speech.
Should Win
I admire the restraint and simplicity of Desplat’s work on The King’s Speech.
Should Have Been Nominated
Desplat’s score for Polanski’s The Ghost Writer set the film’s playful tone from the very first shot, while Sylvain Chomet provided his own delicate, melodic score for The Illusionist.
Original Song:
127 Hours
Country Strong
Tangled
Toy Story 3
Will Win
Randy Newman will likely win his second Oscar in this category for his song “We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3.
Should Win
None of the above.
Should Have Been Nominated
Of all the songs written directly for the screen, Sylvain Chomet’s own song “Chanson Illusionist” for The Illusionist, and Louis-Ronan Choisy’s title song for Francois Ozon’s Le Refuge, were the best to my ears.
Franklin P. Laviola is a filmmaker and freelance writer, based in the New York area. He wrote and directed the award-winning short film “Happy Face,” which has screened at over twenty film festivals.
What about Tree of Life?