To prepare for the upcoming Academy Awards, Franklin Laviola, director of the acclaimed short Happy Face, gives us his Academy Award predictions. Read what he thinks and watch the Oscars on Sunday night!
Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Will Win: On Sunday night, Michel Hazanavicius‘ silent film simulation The Artist will take the top prize. Over the last decade, there have been several instantly forgettable Best Picture winners — A Beautiful Mind, Chicago, Crash, and Slumdog Millionaire. The Artist will join their insipid ranks, thanks mainly to the marketing juggernaut of the Weinstein Co.
Should Win: I would be happy with either The Tree of Life or Hugo (my #1 and #2 films of the year, respectively), taking the top prize. Scorsese’s film is his best in years, a technically dazzling tribute to the history of early cinema, as well as a personal testament to his love of the medium. Malick’s epic poem of a film goes where few films even dare to go and will be revered for many years to come. It’s a miracle that a film as aesthetically challenging as Malick’s was even nominated for Best Picture.
Should Have Been Nominated: Werner Herzog’s Cave of Forgotten Dreams, Bertrand Tavernier’s The Princess of Montpensier, Abbas Kiarostami’s Certified Copy, Bertrand Bonello’s House of Pleasures, Xavier Beauvois’ Of Gods & Men, and, a film that many actually believed had a realistic shot at being recognized, Nicolas Winding Refn’s Drive.
Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Will Win: Barring a last minute surge of support for Scorsese, the French-born Michel Hazanavicius will take this category too. Hazanavicius won the DGA award several weeks back and the winner there, more often than not, also goes on to capture Oscar gold.
Should Win: Terrence Malick for the beauty and commitment of his vision, which engages with the cosmic and the individual or the divine and the human, in equal measure. Of course, I would love to see Scorsese win too, even if he already won in this category for The Departed, five years ago.
Should Have Been Nominated: Werner Herzog, Bertrand Tavernier, and Abbas Kiarostami, to name just three great filmmakers, who all made significant contributions to the art form, this past year.
Actor
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Will Win: Back in December, this looked like Clooney’s prize to lose, with only Brad Pitt giving him any real competition. However, within the last month, Jean Dujardin won three major Best Actor prizes in a row — the Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical), the SAG award, and the BAFTA. The Oscar will be next for the French comic.
Should Win: The two frontrunners in this category, the mugging Dujardin and shabby Clooney, actually, give two of the more insufferable performances of the year. As good as first time nominees Bichir and Oldman are in their roles, it’s an effortless Brad Pitt (as Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane), whose work really stands out. Pitt gives a terrific movie star performance, reminiscent of some of the best work of his mentor, Robert Redford.
Should Have Been Nominated: As an American everyman, who is experiencing either visions of the Apocalypse or a psychotic breakdown, Michael Shannon gave arguably the finest male lead performance of the year in Take Shelter.
Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Will Win: Two-time Oscar-winner, Meryl Streep won both the Golden Globe and BAFTA, for her performance as Margaret Thatcher. But it’s the SAG award-winner, Viola Davis, who will win the Oscar.
Should Win: There are three excellent performances, nominated in this category. Streep gives a technical master class, particularly in the scenes as the older, senile Thatcher. Rooney Mara’s highly physical performance is precisely-modulated and often riveting. Viola Davis, as the Mississippi maid, who dares to tell her own story, is never less than moving.
Should Have Been Nominated: In a career of many distinguished performances, Juliette Binoche gives one of her two or three best in Certified Copy. By far, the best work by a lead actress in any film this year.
Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Will Win: As the cuddly septuagenarian father, who comes out of the closet and is then stricken with cancer, Christopher Plummer wins his first Oscar, with very little competition.
Should Win: Traditionally, this is one of the strongest categories on the board, but not this year. Plummer is better delivering exposition in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, than he is at trying to salvage an underwritten role in the horrid Beginners. Von Sydow deserves something for his endurance and patience in acting opposite the insidious Thomas Horn, but not an Oscar for his efforts. Branagh, mimicking his idol Sir Laurence Olivier, is fine, if a bit predictably broad, while Jonah Hill is Jonah Hill, only without the pot jokes. Nick Nolte does shine in Warrior, however. If you want proof, just watch the scene, in which he relapses in a hotel room … it involves a recitation of Moby Dick.
Should Have Been Nominated: Brad Pitt and Hunter McCracken, as father and son, were both extraordinary in The Tree of Life.
Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Will Win: Octavia Spencer, the Mississippi maid, who gets her revenge with a scat-filled pie, is a lock for the win.
Should Win: As good as Spencer is, it’s her co-star in a number of scenes, Jessica Chastain, who nearly steals the film. In a year of several great supporting roles, she shows her remarkable comic range, here, as a naive, but genuine Southern belle. It’s the real Marilyn Monroe performance of the year!
Should Have Been Nominated: Jessica Chastain should have also received a nod for her ethereal work as the grieving mother in The Tree of Life. Alice Barnole and Celine Sallette are both captivating in House of Pleasures, a film whose female ensemble includes a number of worthy candidates.
Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Will Win: The surprise box-office success of Midnight in Paris will garner Woody Allen his third screenwriting Oscar.
Should Win: While I do have reservations about the didacticism of A Separation, it does happen to be the most-finely calibrated and accomplished of the bunch.
Should Have Been Nominated: The Tree of Life is shaped like no other film, while Certified Copy has a theorem-like perfection to both its dialogue and structure.
Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Will Win: Despite strong support for Moneyball, Alexander Payne will win his second screenwriting Oscar for The Descendants.
Should Win: John Logan’s adaptation of Hugo tells a children’s story with adult reverberations, by having the guts to take its time and allow the visuals to come first.
Should Have Been Nominated: The Princess of Montpensier for its rich sense of character and period and Mysteries of Lisbon for its mammoth undertaking in juggling numerous narratives.
Animated Feature
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Will Win: Both a critics’ favorite and a box-office hit, Rango will take this category easily.
Should Win: I must admit, I have not seen any of the nominees.
Should Have Been Nominated: The Adventures of Tintin was more vigorous proof of Steven Spielberg’s pop artistry.
Animated Short
Dimanche (Sunday)
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
Will Win: Pixar’s La Luna (not to be confused with Bernardo Bertolucci’s incest epic of the same name) has its fans, but I have a feeling that The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris will sneak in for the win.
Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
Will Win: The cause of the West Memphis Three has passionate support within the Hollywood community, so look for Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory to win this category.
Should Win: Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky’s Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory tells an incredibly gripping story.
Should Have Been Nominated: Werner Herzog’s Cave of Forgotten Dreams and Patricio Guzman’s Nostalgia for the Light elevated the documentary form.
Documentary Short
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Will Win: Saving Face, the story of Pakistani women disfigured by acid attacks and the surgeon dedicated to helping them, sounds like the winner here to me.
Live Action Short
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
Will Win: Directed by Terry George (Hotel Rwanda) and starring Ciaran Hinds (Munich) and Kerry Condon (Rome), The Shore will have the most industry exposure and will, therefore, win this category.
Foreign Language Film
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
Will Win: When it comes to AMPAS’ voting committee picking the winner, festival prize-winners, critics’s favorites and assumed frontrunners (The Class, Waltz with Bashir, A Prophet, The White Ribbon, to name just a few), have not faired well in this category in recent years. However, perhaps bizarrely, something tells me that the current climate in the Middle East and the possibility of military conflict with Iran, will actually help to make Asghar Farhadi’s A Separation, the rare exception to the rule.
Should Win: Just like I said before, A Separation is the finest piece of filmmaking of the bunch … even if I have my reservations.
Should Have Been Nominated: Of the films officially submitted by their countries to the Academy for consideration in this category, Bela Tarr’s The Turin Horse (Hungary) and Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s Once Upon a Time in Anatolia (Turkey), are both on a whole other level of cinematic achievement.
Film Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Will Win: The winner of this category often goes to the winner of Best Picture, but not so this year. I have a feeling history will repeat itself — just as Thelma Schoonmaker won for her editing of The Aviator in 2004 (with that film losing the big prize to Million Dollar Baby), she will win again, this time for her work on Hugo.
Should Win: The legendary Thelma Schoonmaker deserves her fourth Oscar for her deliberate and emotionally-attuned cutting on Hugo.
Should Have Been Nominated: The five credited editors ofThe Tree of Life created a poetic, impressionistic tapestry, like no other film in history, while Matthew Newman did not waste a single shot in Drive.
Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Will Win: Having just picked up the ASC award last weekend, master cinematographer and five-time nominee, Emmanuel Lubezki will likely win his first Oscar on Sunday for The Tree of Life.
Should Win: In its expressive power and technical innovation, The Tree of Life represents a towering achievement in the cinematographic medium.
Should Have Been Nominated: Caroline Champetier’s naturalistic work on Of Gods & Men and Bruno de Keyzer’s period lighting on The Princess of Montpensier were both highly deserving.
Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Will Win: This is the one category that Hugo is guaranteed to win.
Should Win: Two-time Oscar-winner, Dante Ferretti is one of the great production designers of all time — after all, the man designed Pasolini’s Salo’! The sets of Hugo represent another major achievement for him … in a career of many.
Should Have Been Nominated: Jack Fisk’s work onThe Tree of Life conjured the memory of a 1950s childhood in the most subtly beautiful ways possible, while the set designers ofThe Princess of Montpensier and House of Pleasures evoked their film’s own time periods with memorable texture.
Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
Will Win: The vibrant colors of Sandy Powell’s work on Hugo overtakes the black and white 1920s styles of The Artist.
Should Win: Powell’s costume design brilliantly aided in the creation of individual characters in Hugo
Should Have Been Nominated: Just like their art directors, the costume designers of the The Tree of Life, The Princess of Montpensier, and House of Pleasures, all contributed to the specific, detailed worlds therein.
Sound Mixing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Will Win: The loudest film traditionally wins this category, but I can’t imagine anyone voting for the Transformers film. That means it’s between Spielberg’s war film and Scorsese’s silent film tribute. I’m going to go with Hugo, primarily because it’s the film with the most nominations at eleven.
Should Win: The sound mixers of Hugo conjure an entire aural environment, in each of the film’s major locations. Just listen to the jaw-dropping number of sounds and sound levels in the train station scenes alone.
Should Have Been Nominated: The sound mixers on The Tree of Life created a phenomenally vast soundscape, incorporating everything from soft-spoken voice-over to the sounds of prehistoric life. Watch the opening getaway sequence in Drive and you’ll hear the varying levels of specific sounds, used to create further suspense.
Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Will Win: Hugo will win this category too, because voters will likely vote for the same film in both sound categories.
Should Win: The sound editors on Drive design memorable individual sound effects, like the smashing of the head in the elevator, throughout the film.
Should Have Been Nominated: The sound editors onThe Tree of Life faced the enormous challenge of designing sound effects for events and things that could never have been heard by the human ear — original cosmic happenings and various prehistoric lifeforms — for an entire twenty-minute-long sequence. The clang of sword blades and ripping of flesh had to be sustained by sound effects editors for a 45-minute-long fight sequence in 13 Assassins.
Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
The Iron Lady
Will Win: The makeup designers of The Iron Lady will win for transforming Meryl Streep into Margaret Thatcher.
Should Win: The makeup designers of The Iron Lady should win for convincingly aging Meryl Streep.
Should Have Been Nominated: The imaginative creature design of Boonsong and the other monkey ghosts in Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives and the surreal, ghastly disfigurement of one of the prostitutes in House of Pleasures, are both highly deserving of recognition.
Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Will Win: Four-time Oscar-winner, Joe Letteri, will win another Oscar for his ground-breaking motion-capture work on Rise of the Planet of the Apes.
Should Win: As great as the visual effects on Rise of the Planet of the Apes happen to be, my vote here would go to Rob Legato’s work on Hugo. Legato brilliantly contributes to the recreation of Melies‘ silent films in the film’s third act.
Should Have Been Nominated: Effects legend Douglas Trumbull was shockingly snubbed this year for his astonishing work on The Tree of Life. The effects designers of The Mill and the Cross skillfully placed viewers inside a Pieter Bruegel painting.
Original Score
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse
Will Win: Ludovic Bource will win for his audience-suffocating score of The Artist.
Should Win: As much as I like both of John Williams’ scores, Howard Shore’s Erik Satie-inflected work on Hugo has the most resonance.
Should Have Been Nominated: Ernst Reijseger’s Cave of Forgotten Dreams score was the perfect aural match to the spectacle of the prehistoric cave paintings. Marie-Jeanne Serrero was confronted with the challenge of inventing the music Nannerl Mozart herself would have composed in Mozart’s Sister.
Original Song
The Muppets (“Man of Muppet”)
Rio (“Real in Rio”)
Will Win: The Muppets are a lock.
Should Win: Neither one. They’re both terrible songs.
Should Have Been Nominated: “Coeur Volant” from Hugo and “Star Spangled Man” from Captain America: The First Avenger are two fine examples of songs, which were written specifically for use in a film, this year.
******************************************
Franklin P. Laviola is a filmmaker and freelance writer, based in the New York area. He wrote and directed the award-winning short film “Happy Face,” which has screened at over twenty film festivals. He most recently gave us his reactions to the latest Academy Awards and shared his picks for worst and best movies of 2011.
Pingback: Film Projections: What Should Have Been Nominated for Oscars in Each Category « Frontier Psychiatrist
Pingback: French Pleasures: An Interview with Alice Barnole « Frontier Psychiatrist
Pingback: How High Does This Moon Rise? A Review of Wes Anderson’s Moonrise Kingdom « Frontier Psychiatrist